Goffertstadion · Analysis updated 08:04 UTC
NEC Nijmegen vs Heerenveen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.78 expected goals for NEC Nijmegen and 1.88 for Heerenveen, a combined total of 3.65. That distribution gives Heerenveen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
62.8% probability
Expected goals
1.78 – 1.88
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
NEC Nijmegen home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Heerenveen away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Heerenveen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 37% / 22% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.78 goals for NEC Nijmegen and 1.88 for Heerenveen, a combined 3.65 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.7%
- 1–28.1%
- 2–17.7%
- 2–27.2%
- 1–35.1%
Recent form
NEC Nijmegen
- 2026-10-22T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Zagreb · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Fortuna Sittard · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Levski Sofia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Ajax · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T14:45:00.000Z · H vs GO Ahead Eagles · 1-1 (D)
Heerenveen
- 2026-10-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Excelsior · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs PSV Eindhoven · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Sparta Rotterdam · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Telstar · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T12:30:00.000Z · H vs AZ Alkmaar · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 23 |
| 2 | AZ Alkmaar | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 20 |
| 3 | PSV Eindhoven | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 19 |
| 4 | Ajax | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 18 |
| 5 | Twente | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 17 |
| 6 | Fortuna Sittard | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 15 |
| 7 | Heerenveen | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 |
| 8 | Groningen | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14 |
| 9 | GO Ahead Eagles | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 14 |
| 10 | Cambuur | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 12 |
| 11 | Utrecht | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -10 | 12 |
| 12 | Excelsior | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 13 | NEC Nijmegen | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 14 | Sparta Rotterdam | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 9 |
| 15 | PEC Zwolle | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -12 | 8 |
| 16 | Telstar | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 6 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 6 |
| 18 | Willem II | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | -22 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 62.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.