Goffertstadion · Analysis updated 23:30 UTC
NEC Nijmegen vs Sparta Rotterdam Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.33 expected goals for NEC Nijmegen and 1.57 for Sparta Rotterdam, a combined total of 3.89. That distribution gives NEC Nijmegen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
NEC Nijmegen win
54.6% probability
Expected goals
2.33 – 1.57
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
NEC Nijmegen home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sparta Rotterdam away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates NEC Nijmegen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 20% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.33 goals for NEC Nijmegen and 1.57 for Sparta Rotterdam, a combined 3.89 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.6%
- 1–17.4%
- 2–26.8%
- 3–16.7%
- 1–25.8%
Recent form
NEC Nijmegen
- 2026-10-25T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Groningen · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-22T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Zagreb · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Fortuna Sittard · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Levski Sofia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Ajax · 1-1 (D)
Sparta Rotterdam
- 2026-10-17T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Willem II · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:30:00.000Z · A vs GO Ahead Eagles · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-19T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Heerenveen · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs PSV Eindhoven · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs PEC Zwolle · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 21 | 24 |
| 2 | Ajax | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 21 |
| 3 | PSV Eindhoven | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 20 |
| 4 | Twente | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 20 |
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 20 |
| 6 | Fortuna Sittard | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 18 |
| 7 | Heerenveen | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 |
| 8 | Groningen | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 9 | GO Ahead Eagles | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 14 |
| 10 | Cambuur | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 12 |
| 11 | Utrecht | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -10 | 12 |
| 12 | NEC Nijmegen | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 13 | Excelsior | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 11 |
| 14 | Sparta Rotterdam | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 9 |
| 15 | PEC Zwolle | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -12 | 8 |
| 16 | Telstar | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 6 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 6 |
| 18 | Willem II | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | -22 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is NEC Nijmegen win, at 54.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.