MTN Omondi Stadium · Analysis updated 12:41 UTC
NEC vs Buhimba Saints Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.78 expected goals for NEC and 0.48 for Buhimba Saints, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives NEC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 31% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
NEC win
69.3% probability
Expected goals
1.78 – 0.48
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
NEC home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates NEC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 69%, against 69% / 22% / 9% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.78 goals for NEC and 0.48 for Buhimba Saints, a combined 2.25 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 39% and both teams to score at 31%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
91%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
31%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–018.7%
- 2–016.6%
- 0–010.5%
- 3–09.8%
- 1–18.9%
Recent form
NEC
- 2026-10-08T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Express · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-15T13:00:00.000Z · H vs URA · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mbarara City · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-01T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Lugazi · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T13:00:00.000Z · A vs KCCA · 2-0 (W)
Buhimba Saints
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUL | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 19 |
| 2 | SC Villa | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 17 |
| 3 | NEC | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 14 |
| 4 | Entebbe UPPC | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 5 | Blacks Power | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 12 |
| 6 | Vipers | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 11 |
| 7 | Maroons | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10 |
| 8 | KCCA | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 | Kitara | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | UPDF | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 11 | Lugazi | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Police | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 8 |
| 13 | Express | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 14 | Mbarara City | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 15 | URA | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 | Ntugasaze | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 17 | Kataka | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -13 | 2 |
| 18 | Kigezi HomeBoyz | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is NEC win, at 69.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 31% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.