· Analysis updated 13:32 UTC
Necaxa U21 vs Puebla U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for Necaxa U21 and 1.58 for Puebla U21, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Puebla U21 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Puebla U21 win
47.7% probability
Expected goals
1.13 – 1.58
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Necaxa U21 home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Puebla U21 away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Puebla U21 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 27% / 25% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.13 goals for Necaxa U21 and 1.58 for Puebla U21, a combined 2.70 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.9%
- 0–110.6%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–28.3%
- 1–07.6%
Recent form
Necaxa U21
- 2026-10-16T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlas U21 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Pachuca U21 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Club America U21 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Atl. San Luis U21 · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Puebla U21 · 0-2 (L)
Puebla U21
- 2026-08-22T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Santos Laguna U21 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-17T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Pachuca U21 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-31T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Guadalajara Chivas U21 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-21T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Cruz Azul U21 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-17T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Juarez U21 · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga MX U21 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toluca U21 | 12 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 34 |
| 2 | Club Leon U21 | 12 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 31 |
| 3 | Guadalajara Chivas U21 | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 21 |
| 4 | Club Tijuana U21 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 20 |
| 5 | Club America U21 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 19 |
| 6 | Juarez U21 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 19 |
| 7 | Atl. San Luis U21 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 6 | -4 | 18 |
| 8 | Necaxa U21 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 6 | -4 | 18 |
| 9 | Puebla U21 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 17 |
| 10 | Monterrey U21 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 16 |
| 11 | Cruz Azul U21 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 16 |
| 12 | UNAM Pumas U21 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 16 |
| 13 | Santos Laguna U21 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | -2 | 16 |
| 14 | Atlante U21 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 7 | -7 | 15 |
| 15 | Atlas U21 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 13 |
| 16 | Tigres UANL U21 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -8 | 10 |
| 17 | Pachuca U21 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 9 | -8 | 9 |
| 18 | Queretaro U21 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 9 | -9 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Puebla U21 win, at 47.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.