Estadio Victoria · Referee Ismael Rosario Lopez Penuelas, Mexico · Analysis updated 14:35 UTC
Necaxa vs Cruz Azul Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.78 expected goals for Necaxa and 1.63 for Cruz Azul, a combined total of 3.40. That distribution gives Necaxa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.4% probability
Expected goals
1.78 – 1.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Necaxa home form
0 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Cruz Azul away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.6%
- 2–18.5%
- 1–27.8%
- 2–26.9%
- 1–05.9%
Recent form
Necaxa
- 2026-10-11T23:10:00.000Z · A vs CF Pachuca · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-28T03:10:00.000Z · H vs Club America · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico San Luis · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Puebla · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Tigres UANL · 1-1 (D)
Cruz Azul
- 2026-10-02T02:30:00.000Z · A vs Club America · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T22:50:00.000Z · H vs Toluca · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-20T01:10:00.000Z · A vs Monterrey · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-17T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter Miami · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T03:15:00.000Z · H vs Club America · 4-3 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-29T01:00:00.000Z · Necaxa 1-3 Cruz Azul (Liga MX)
- 2026-04-27T01:05:00.000Z · Necaxa 1-4 Cruz Azul (Liga MX)
- 2025-10-22T01:00:00.000Z · Necaxa 1-1 Cruz Azul (Liga MX)
- 2025-01-29T03:05:00.000Z · Necaxa 1-3 Cruz Azul (Liga MX)
- 2024-10-05T23:00:00.000Z · Necaxa 0-3 Cruz Azul (Liga MX)
- 2024-03-16T23:00:00.000Z · Necaxa 2-1 Cruz Azul (Liga MX)
- 2023-10-05T01:00:00.000Z · Necaxa 1-3 Cruz Azul (Liga MX)
- 2023-01-22T03:10:00.000Z · Necaxa 1-0 Cruz Azul (Liga MX)
- 2022-12-13T00:00:00.000Z · Necaxa 0-0 Cruz Azul (Copa por México)
- 2022-07-30T22:00:00.000Z · Necaxa 0-1 Cruz Azul (Liga MX)
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 21 |
| 2 | Toluca | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 20 |
| 3 | Club Queretaro | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 20 |
| 4 | Guadalajara Chivas | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 19 |
| 5 | Leon | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 6 | Atlas | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 18 |
| 7 | Cruz Azul | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 16 |
| 8 | Club Tijuana | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 9 | Puebla | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 15 |
| 10 | Monterrey | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 14 |
| 11 | Tigres UANL | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 13 |
| 12 | CF Pachuca | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 12 |
| 13 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 12 |
| 14 | Atletico San Luis | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 12 |
| 15 | Atlante FC | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -5 | 11 |
| 16 | Santos Laguna | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 10 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 8 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | -18 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.