· Analysis updated 07:35 UTC
Needham Market vs Stanway Rovers Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.23 expected goals for Needham Market and 1.10 for Stanway Rovers, a combined total of 3.33. That distribution gives Needham Market the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Needham Market win
62.8% probability
Expected goals
2.23 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Needham Market home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Stanway Rovers away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Needham Market to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 63% / 20% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.23 goals for Needham Market and 1.10 for Stanway Rovers, a combined 3.33 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
37%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.8%
- 2–08.9%
- 1–18.8%
- 1–07.9%
- 3–17.3%
Recent form
Needham Market
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Rushall Olympic · 3-5 (L)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Stamford · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Canvey Island · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Braintree · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Braintree · 3-3 (D)
Stanway Rovers
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Faversham Town · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Brentwood Town · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Whyteleafe · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Needham Market · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Needham Market · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Needham Market win, at 62.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.