Palms Sports Arena · Referee R. Ahmadov · Analysis updated 14:40 UTC
Neftchi Baku vs Araz Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.25 expected goals for Neftchi Baku and 0.64 for Araz, a combined total of 3.90. That distribution gives Neftchi Baku the largest share of the 1X2 market at 87%, with the draw at 9%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 87% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Neftchi Baku win
86.6% probability
Expected goals
3.25 – 0.64
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Neftchi Baku home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Araz away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Neftchi Baku to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 87%, against 87% / 9% / 4% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.25 goals for Neftchi Baku and 0.64 for Araz, a combined 3.90 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
96%
Double chance 12
91%
Double chance X2
14%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–011.6%
- 2–010.7%
- 4–09.5%
- 3–17.5%
- 2–16.9%
Recent form
Neftchi Baku
- 2026-09-18T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Qabala · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Imisli FK · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Safa Baku · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Zira · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-23T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Araz · 5-0 (W)
Araz
- 2026-10-09T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kapaz · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Şamaxı FK · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Turan · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Qarabag · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-31T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sabah FA · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premyer Liqa table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Neftchi Baku win, at 86.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 87% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.