Palms Sports Arena · Analysis updated 15:09 UTC
Neftchi Baku vs Kapaz Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.73 expected goals for Neftchi Baku and 0.73 for Kapaz, a combined total of 3.45. That distribution gives Neftchi Baku the largest share of the 1X2 market at 79%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 79% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Neftchi Baku win
79.3% probability
Expected goals
2.73 – 0.73
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Neftchi Baku home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Neftchi Baku to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 79%, against 79% / 13% / 7% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.73 goals for Neftchi Baku and 0.73 for Kapaz, a combined 3.45 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
93%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
21%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.8%
- 3–010.7%
- 1–08.7%
- 2–18.5%
- 3–17.8%
Recent form
Neftchi Baku
- 2026-09-18T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Qabala · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Imisli FK · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Safa Baku · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Zira · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-23T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Araz · 5-0 (W)
Kapaz
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sumqayıt · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Qabala · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Şamaxı FK · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Turan · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-15T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Sabah FA · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-23T11:00:00.000Z · Neftchi Baku 1-0 Kapaz (Premyer Liqa)
- 2026-02-15T10:30:00.000Z · Neftchi Baku 3-1 Kapaz (Premyer Liqa)
- 2025-11-01T13:00:00.000Z · Neftchi Baku 5-1 Kapaz (Premyer Liqa)
- 2025-05-04T16:00:00.000Z · Neftchi Baku 2-2 Kapaz (Premyer Liqa)
- 2025-03-05T13:00:00.000Z · Neftchi Baku 0-1 Kapaz (Premyer Liqa)
- 2025-02-28T15:30:00.000Z · Neftchi Baku 1-0 Kapaz (Cup)
- 2025-02-05T12:00:00.000Z · Neftchi Baku 2-0 Kapaz (Cup)
- 2024-12-15T14:30:00.000Z · Neftchi Baku 2-1 Kapaz (Premyer Liqa)
- 2024-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · Neftchi Baku 3-4 Kapaz (Premyer Liqa)
- 2024-05-10T15:00:00.000Z · Neftchi Baku 5-1 Kapaz (Premyer Liqa)
Premyer Liqa table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Neftchi Baku win, at 79.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 79% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.