Palms Sports Arena · Referee A. Aghayev · Analysis updated 06:08 UTC
Neftchi Baku vs Safa Baku Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.96 expected goals for Neftchi Baku and 0.64 for Safa Baku, a combined total of 3.60. That distribution gives Neftchi Baku the largest share of the 1X2 market at 84%, with the draw at 11%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 84% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Neftchi Baku win
83.7% probability
Expected goals
2.96 – 0.64
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Neftchi Baku home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Safa Baku away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Neftchi Baku to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 84%, against 84% / 11% / 5% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.96 goals for Neftchi Baku and 0.64 for Safa Baku, a combined 3.60 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
95%
Double chance 12
89%
Double chance X2
16%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.9%
- 3–011.8%
- 4–08.7%
- 1–08.1%
- 2–17.7%
Recent form
Neftchi Baku
- 2026-09-18T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Qabala · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Imisli FK · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Safa Baku · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Zira · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-23T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Araz · 5-0 (W)
Safa Baku
- 2026-09-18T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Qarabag · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-14T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sabah FA · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Neftchi Baku · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-29T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Imisli FK · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-22T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Qabala · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premyer Liqa table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Neftchi Baku win, at 83.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 84% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.