Palms Sports Arena · Analysis updated 15:08 UTC
Neftchi Baku vs Turan Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.45 expected goals for Neftchi Baku and 0.83 for Turan, a combined total of 3.28. That distribution gives Neftchi Baku the largest share of the 1X2 market at 73%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 73% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Neftchi Baku win
73.1% probability
Expected goals
2.45 – 0.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Neftchi Baku home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Turan away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Neftchi Baku to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 73%, against 73% / 16% / 11% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.45 goals for Neftchi Baku and 0.83 for Turan, a combined 3.28 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
89%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
27%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.3%
- 2–19.4%
- 3–09.3%
- 1–09.3%
- 3–17.6%
Recent form
Neftchi Baku
- 2026-09-18T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Qabala · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Imisli FK · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Safa Baku · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Zira · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-23T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Araz · 5-0 (W)
Turan
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Zira · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Araz · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sumqayıt · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kapaz · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-23T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Şamaxı FK · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premyer Liqa table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Neftchi Baku win, at 73.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.