Palms Sports Arena · Analysis updated 14:17 UTC
Neftchi Baku vs Zira Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.33 expected goals for Neftchi Baku and 1.04 for Zira, a combined total of 3.36. That distribution gives Neftchi Baku the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Neftchi Baku win
66.1% probability
Expected goals
2.33 – 1.04
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Neftchi Baku home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Neftchi Baku to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 66% / 18% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.33 goals for Neftchi Baku and 1.04 for Zira, a combined 3.36 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 65% and both teams to score at 58%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
34%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.7%
- 2–09.4%
- 1–18.4%
- 1–08.0%
- 3–17.5%
Recent form
Neftchi Baku
- 2026-09-18T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Qabala · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Imisli FK · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Safa Baku · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Zira · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-23T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Araz · 5-0 (W)
Zira
- 2026-10-23T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sumqayıt · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-18T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Kapaz · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Şamaxı FK · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Turan · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Qarabag · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premyer Liqa table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Neftchi Baku win, at 66.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.