Neftchi vs Dinamo Samarqand Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.83 expected goals for Neftchi and 0.95 for Dinamo Samarqand, a combined total of 3.78. That distribution gives Neftchi the largest share of the 1X2 market at 76%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 76% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Neftchi win

76.2% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.83 – 0.95

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Neftchi home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dinamo Samarqand away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Neftchi to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 76%, against 76% / 14% / 10% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.83 goals for Neftchi and 0.95 for Dinamo Samarqand, a combined 3.78 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Neftchi win76%

Draw14%

Dinamo Samarqand win10%

Double chance 1X

90%

Double chance 12

86%

Double chance X2

24%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals89%

Over 2.5 goals73%

Over 3.5 goals52%

Both teams to score57%

Correct score

2–09.2%
2–18.7%
3–08.6%
3–18.2%
1–06.5%

Recent form

Neftchi

2026-10-07T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Xorazm · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-14T13:45:00.000Z · H vs Al Quwa Al Jawiya · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-09T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Surkhon · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Nasaf · 2-6 (L)

Dinamo Samarqand

2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Buxoro · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-09T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Nasaf · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Navbahor · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Qizilqum · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kokand-1912 · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Super League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Neftchi	25	18	4	3	37	58
2	Pakhtakor	25	15	8	2	19	53
3	Navbahor	24	13	7	4	18	46
4	Nasaf	25	11	8	6	14	41
5	Buxoro	25	12	5	8	5	41
6	Olmaliq	24	11	6	7	3	39
7	Lokomotiv	24	11	6	7	9	39
8	Qizilqum	24	10	3	11	-6	33
9	Andijan	24	9	3	12	-3	30
10	Dinamo Samarqand	24	8	6	10	-3	30
11	Sogdiana	25	8	5	12	-7	29
12	Surkhon	25	7	8	10	-9	29
13	Bunyodkor	25	8	2	15	-15	26
14	Kokand-1912	24	5	8	11	-10	23
15	Xorazm	24	5	8	11	-14	23
16	Mash'al	25	1	1	23	-38	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Neftchi win, at 76.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.

A 76% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.