Istiqlol Stadium · Analysis updated 10:43 UTC
Neftchi vs Lokomotiv Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.93 expected goals for Neftchi and 0.77 for Lokomotiv, a combined total of 1.70. That distribution gives Neftchi the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 34%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 24% for over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
71.6% probability
Expected goals
0.93 – 0.77
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Neftchi home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lokomotiv away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Neftchi to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 34% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.93 goals for Neftchi and 0.77 for Lokomotiv, a combined 1.70 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
66%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–018.3%
- 1–017.1%
- 0–114.0%
- 1–113.1%
- 2–08.0%
Recent form
Neftchi
- 2026-10-07T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Xorazm · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T13:45:00.000Z · H vs Al Quwa Al Jawiya · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Surkhon · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Nasaf · 2-6 (L)
Lokomotiv
- 2026-10-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Neftchi · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Nasaf · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Sogdiana · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Neftchi · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-15T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Bunyodkor · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Cup table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 71.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 33% and over 2.5 goals at 24%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.