· Analysis updated 14:30 UTC
Neftchi vs OshMU Aldier Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for Neftchi and 1.75 for OshMU Aldier, a combined total of 2.88. That distribution gives OshMU Aldier the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
OshMU Aldier win
52.0% probability
Expected goals
1.13 – 1.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Neftchi home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
OshMU Aldier away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates OshMU Aldier to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 24% / 24% / 52% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.13 goals for Neftchi and 1.75 for OshMU Aldier, a combined 2.88 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
48%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.1%
- 0–19.9%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–28.6%
- 1–06.3%
Recent form
Neftchi
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Asia Talas · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Asiagoal · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bishkek City · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-01T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Alga · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-23T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bars · 0-4 (L)
OshMU Aldier
- 2026-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bars · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-07T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dordoi Bishkek · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-01T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Muras United · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-24T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Toktogul · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Abdish-Ata · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bars | 24 | 15 | 4 | 5 | 32 | 49 |
| 2 | Asia Talas | 25 | 14 | 7 | 4 | 19 | 49 |
| 3 | Alga | 24 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 19 | 49 |
| 4 | Ozgon | 23 | 15 | 3 | 5 | 23 | 48 |
| 5 | Muras United | 23 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 27 | 47 |
| 6 | Alay | 25 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 40 |
| 7 | Talant | 25 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 33 |
| 8 | Bishkek City | 25 | 7 | 9 | 9 | -3 | 30 |
| 9 | Neftchi | 25 | 9 | 3 | 13 | -9 | 30 |
| 10 | Dordoi Bishkek | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 3 | 29 |
| 11 | Ilbirs | 24 | 6 | 10 | 8 | -8 | 28 |
| 12 | Toktogul | 24 | 8 | 4 | 12 | -11 | 28 |
| 13 | OshMU Aldier | 25 | 7 | 7 | 11 | -12 | 28 |
| 14 | Asiagoal | 25 | 4 | 9 | 12 | -14 | 21 |
| 15 | Abdish-Ata | 24 | 3 | 6 | 15 | -27 | 15 |
| 16 | Kara-Balta | 25 | 1 | 6 | 18 | -48 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is OshMU Aldier win, at 52.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.