Istiqlol Stadium · Analysis updated 13:36 UTC
Neftchi vs Pakhtakor Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.12 expected goals for Neftchi and 0.64 for Pakhtakor, a combined total of 1.76. That distribution gives Neftchi the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 26% for over 2.5 goals and 32% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Neftchi win
47.1% probability
Expected goals
1.12 – 0.64
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Neftchi home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Pakhtakor away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Neftchi to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 32% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.12 goals for Neftchi and 0.64 for Pakhtakor, a combined 1.76 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–019.3%
- 0–017.2%
- 1–112.3%
- 0–111.0%
- 2–010.8%
Recent form
Neftchi
- 2026-10-07T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Xorazm · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T13:45:00.000Z · H vs Al Quwa Al Jawiya · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Surkhon · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Nasaf · 2-6 (L)
Pakhtakor
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Neftchi · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-25T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Samarqand · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-21T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Surkhon · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-16T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Nasaf · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Hussein · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Cup table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Neftchi win, at 47.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 32% and over 2.5 goals at 26%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.