Neftchi vs Qizilqum Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Neftchi and 0.55 for Qizilqum, a combined total of 2.03. That distribution gives Neftchi the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 33% for over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Neftchi win

60.0% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.48 – 0.55

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Neftchi home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Qizilqum away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Neftchi to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 60% / 26% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Neftchi and 0.55 for Qizilqum, a combined 2.03 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Neftchi win60%

Draw26%

Qizilqum win14%

Double chance 1X

86%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

40%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals60%

Over 2.5 goals33%

Over 3.5 goals15%

Both teams to score33%

Correct score

1–019.5%
2–014.4%
0–013.2%
1–110.7%
2–17.9%

Recent form

Neftchi

2026-10-07T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Xorazm · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-14T13:45:00.000Z · H vs Al Quwa Al Jawiya · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-09T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Surkhon · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Nasaf · 2-6 (L)

Qizilqum

2026-10-15T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Andijan · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Surkhon · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-21T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Xorazm · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Samarqand · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-05T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Buxoro · 3-2 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Super League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Neftchi	25	18	4	3	37	58
2	Pakhtakor	25	15	8	2	19	53
3	Navbahor	24	13	7	4	18	46
4	Nasaf	25	11	8	6	14	41
5	Buxoro	25	12	5	8	5	41
6	Olmaliq	24	11	6	7	3	39
7	Lokomotiv	24	11	6	7	9	39
8	Qizilqum	24	10	3	11	-6	33
9	Andijan	24	9	3	12	-3	30
10	Dinamo Samarqand	24	8	6	10	-3	30
11	Sogdiana	25	8	5	12	-7	29
12	Surkhon	25	7	8	10	-9	29
13	Bunyodkor	25	8	2	15	-15	26
14	Kokand-1912	24	5	8	11	-10	23
15	Xorazm	24	5	8	11	-14	23
16	Mash'al	25	1	1	23	-38	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Neftchi win, at 60.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 33% and over 2.5 goals at 33%.

A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.