Neftochimic Burgas vs Maritsa Plovdiv Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.43 expected goals for Neftochimic Burgas and 0.98 for Maritsa Plovdiv, a combined total of 3.40. That distribution gives Neftochimic Burgas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Neftochimic Burgas win

69.3% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.43 – 0.98

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Neftochimic Burgas home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Maritsa Plovdiv away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Neftochimic Burgas to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 69%, against 69% / 17% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.43 goals for Neftochimic Burgas and 0.98 for Maritsa Plovdiv, a combined 3.40 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Neftochimic Burgas win69%

Draw17%

Maritsa Plovdiv win13%

Double chance 1X

87%

Double chance 12

83%

Double chance X2

31%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%

Over 2.5 goals66%

Over 3.5 goals44%

Both teams to score57%

Correct score

2–09.8%
2–19.6%
1–08.1%
3–07.9%
1–17.9%

Recent form

Neftochimic Burgas

2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportist Svoge · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Yambol 1915 · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-23T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv II · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Zagorets · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sozopol · 2-4 (L)

Maritsa Plovdiv

2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletik Kuklen · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Dimitrovgrad · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Levski Karlovo · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Rodopa Smolyan · 3-5 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Spartak Plovdiv · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Third League - Southeast table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Levski Krumovgrad	11	11	0	0	27	33
2	Maritsa Milevo	11	9	0	2	15	27
3	Spartak Plovdiv	10	9	0	1	14	27
4	Sayana Haskovo	11	6	3	2	8	21
5	Yambol 1915	11	6	2	3	16	20
6	Neftochimic Burgas	10	6	1	3	7	19
7	Rodopa Smolyan	11	5	2	4	-1	17
8	Sozopol	11	5	1	5	2	16
9	Gigant Saedinenie	11	5	1	5	2	16
10	Rozova dolina	11	2	7	2	-1	13
11	Zagorets	11	4	1	6	-9	13
12	Dimitrovgrad	11	3	2	6	-2	11
13	Botev Plovdiv II	11	2	5	4	-4	11
14	Atletik Kuklen	10	2	1	7	-15	7
15	Lokomotiv Plovdiv II	11	2	1	8	-21	7
16	Sekirovo Rakovski	11	1	3	7	-13	6
17	Levski Karlovo	11	2	0	9	-16	6
18	Maritsa Plovdiv	10	1	2	7	-9	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Neftochimic Burgas win, at 69.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.

A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.