efbet Arena · Analysis updated 00:34 UTC
Neftochimic Burgas vs Rakovski 2011 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.88 expected goals for Neftochimic Burgas and 0.68 for Rakovski 2011, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Neftochimic Burgas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Neftochimic Burgas win
66.0% probability
Expected goals
1.88 – 0.68
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Neftochimic Burgas home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Rakovski 2011 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Neftochimic Burgas to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 66% / 21% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.88 goals for Neftochimic Burgas and 0.68 for Rakovski 2011, a combined 2.55 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
87%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
34%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.6%
- 2–013.7%
- 1–19.9%
- 2–19.3%
- 3–08.6%
Recent form
Neftochimic Burgas
- 2026-10-21T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sayana Haskovo · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-16T12:00:00.000Z · H vs CSKA 1948 · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Rozova dolina · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportist Svoge · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Yambol 1915 · 2-0 (W)
Rakovski 2011
- 2026-05-27T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Sozopol · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-05-23T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Yambol 1915 · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-05-16T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sekirovo Rakovski · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-13T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Sayana Haskovo · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-05-09T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv II · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-02T14:00:00.000Z · Neftochimic Burgas 3-1 Rakovski 2011 (Third League - Southeast)
- 2025-10-25T13:00:00.000Z · Neftochimic Burgas 3-1 Rakovski 2011 (Third League - Southeast)
Third League - Southeast table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levski Krumovgrad | 12 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 36 |
| 2 | Maritsa Milevo | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 28 |
| 3 | Spartak Plovdiv | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 27 |
| 4 | Neftochimic Burgas | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 22 |
| 5 | Sayana Haskovo | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 22 |
| 6 | Yambol 1915 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 20 |
| 7 | Rodopa Smolyan | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 20 |
| 8 | Gigant Saedinenie | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 19 |
| 9 | Sozopol | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 16 |
| 10 | Rozova dolina | 12 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 16 |
| 11 | Dimitrovgrad | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 14 |
| 12 | Zagorets | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 14 |
| 13 | Botev Plovdiv II | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -5 | 11 |
| 14 | Maritsa Plovdiv | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -8 | 8 |
| 15 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv II | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -21 | 8 |
| 16 | Atletik Kuklen | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -16 | 7 |
| 17 | Sekirovo Rakovski | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | -14 | 6 |
| 18 | Levski Karlovo | 12 | 2 | 0 | 10 | -19 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Neftochimic Burgas win, at 66.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.