efbet Arena · Analysis updated 11:24 UTC
Neftochimic Burgas vs Sportist Svoge Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.72 expected goals for Neftochimic Burgas and 1.07 for Sportist Svoge, a combined total of 2.79. That distribution gives Neftochimic Burgas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Neftochimic Burgas win
52.6% probability
Expected goals
1.72 – 1.07
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Neftochimic Burgas home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sportist Svoge away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Neftochimic Burgas to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 24% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.72 goals for Neftochimic Burgas and 1.07 for Sportist Svoge, a combined 2.79 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.3%
- 1–010.6%
- 2–19.7%
- 2–09.1%
- 0–16.6%
Recent form
Neftochimic Burgas
- 2026-10-21T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sayana Haskovo · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-16T12:00:00.000Z · H vs CSKA 1948 · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Rozova dolina · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportist Svoge · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Yambol 1915 · 2-0 (W)
Sportist Svoge
- 2026-10-23T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Chernomorets 1919 Burgas · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Hebar 1918 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Neftochimic Burgas · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs CSKA Sofia II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-21T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Vihren · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Neftochimic Burgas win, at 52.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.