· Analysis updated 11:47 UTC
Negelle Arsi vs Adama Kenema Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.86 expected goals for Negelle Arsi and 0.52 for Adama Kenema, a combined total of 1.38. That distribution gives Negelle Arsi the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 38%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 16% for over 2.5 goals and 24% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 25%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
78.9% probability
Expected goals
0.86 – 0.52
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Adama Kenema away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Negelle Arsi to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 38% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.86 goals for Negelle Arsi and 0.52 for Adama Kenema, a combined 1.38 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 16% and both teams to score at 24%, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 25%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
62%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–025.1%
- 1–021.6%
- 0–113.1%
- 1–111.3%
- 2–09.3%
Recent form
Negelle Arsi
Adama Kenema
- 2026-10-22T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kedus Giorgis · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-16T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sheger Ketema · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-09T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Mebrat Hayl · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-02T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Awassa Kenema · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-06-28T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Welayta Dicha · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ethiopia Nigd Bank | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 2 | Bahardar | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 3 | Mekelakeya | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 4 | Negelle Arsi | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 |
| 5 | Halaba Ketema | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 6 | Adama Kenema | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 7 | Ethiopian Medhin | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 8 | Hadiya Hosaena | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 9 | Mebrat Hayl | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 10 | Sheger Ketema | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 11 | Ethiopia Bunna | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 12 | Kedus Giorgis | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 13 | Awassa Kenema | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 14 | Fasil Ketema | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 15 | Welayta Dicha | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 |
| 16 | Welwalo Adigrat Uni | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 17 | Sidama Bunna | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 18 | Gamo Chencha | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 78.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 24% and over 2.5 goals at 16%.
A 79% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.