Neman vs FC Dnepr Mogilev Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for Neman and 0.75 for FC Dnepr Mogilev, a combined total of 2.15. That distribution gives Neman the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Neman win

52.4% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.40 – 0.75

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Neman home form
9 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
FC Dnepr Mogilev away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Neman to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 28% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.40 goals for Neman and 0.75 for FC Dnepr Mogilev, a combined 2.15 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Neman win52%

Draw28%

FC Dnepr Mogilev win20%

Double chance 1X

80%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

48%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals63%

Over 2.5 goals36%

Over 3.5 goals17%

Both teams to score40%

Correct score

1–016.3%
1–112.2%
0–011.6%
2–011.4%
0–18.7%

Recent form

Neman

2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Isloch Minsk R. · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Torpedo Zhodino · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Belshina · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-29T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Slavia Mozyr · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-22T14:45:00.000Z · A vs Naftan · 2-0 (W)

FC Dnepr Mogilev

2026-10-25T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Arsenal · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Bate Borisov · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-11T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Minsk · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Brest · 2-4 (L)
2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs ML Vitebsk · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	ML Vitebsk	25	16	8	1	34	56
2	Dinamo Minsk	25	17	4	4	27	55
3	FC Isloch Minsk R.	25	15	7	3	27	52
4	Dinamo Brest	26	14	5	7	19	47
5	Neman	26	13	4	9	7	43
6	FC Vitebsk	26	11	7	8	6	40
7	FC Gomel	26	11	7	8	10	40
8	FC Minsk	26	10	4	12	-3	34
9	Torpedo Zhodino	26	9	6	11	-3	33
10	Slavia Mozyr	26	8	7	11	-2	31
11	Baranovichi	26	7	7	12	-16	28
12	Belshina	25	6	6	13	-18	24
13	Arsenal	26	5	9	12	-20	24
14	Bate Borisov	26	4	9	13	-14	21
15	FC Dnepr Mogilev	26	3	11	12	-16	20
16	Naftan	26	4	5	17	-38	17

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Neman win, at 52.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.

A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.