· Analysis updated 15:20 UTC
NEOM vs Al-Arabi SC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.04 expected goals for NEOM and 0.99 for Al-Arabi SC, a combined total of 3.03. That distribution gives NEOM the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
NEOM win
61.7% probability
Expected goals
2.04 – 0.99
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
NEOM home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Al-Arabi SC away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates NEOM to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 21% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.04 goals for NEOM and 0.99 for Al-Arabi SC, a combined 3.03 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
38%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.1%
- 2–110.0%
- 1–09.8%
- 1–19.7%
- 3–06.9%
Recent form
NEOM
- 2026-09-13T16:20:00.000Z · H vs Al-Fateh · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-07T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-03T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Al Khaleej Saihat · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-28T15:50:00.000Z · A vs Al Riyadh · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-24T16:40:00.000Z · H vs Al-Qadisiyah FC · 0-2 (L)
Al-Arabi SC
- 2026-09-21T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Al-Duhail SC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Qatar SC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-03T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Al-Sailiya · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Al-Duhail SC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-21T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Al Shamal · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-27T17:00:00.000Z · NEOM 4-1 Al-Arabi SC (Friendlies Clubs)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is NEOM win, at 61.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.