King Khalid Sports City · Analysis updated 11:00 UTC
NEOM vs Al-Duhail SC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.62 expected goals for NEOM and 1.18 for Al-Duhail SC, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives NEOM the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
NEOM win
47.7% probability
Expected goals
1.62 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
NEOM home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Al-Duhail SC away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates NEOM to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 25% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.62 goals for NEOM and 1.18 for Al-Duhail SC, a combined 2.80 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.6%
- 1–09.8%
- 2–19.4%
- 2–08.0%
- 0–17.1%
Recent form
NEOM
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Abha · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Al-Nassr · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-17T15:40:00.000Z · H vs Al-Ettifaq · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Sha'ab Hadhramaut · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:50:00.000Z · A vs Al-Hazm · 1-1 (D)
Al-Duhail SC
- 2026-09-28T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Al Shahaniya · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-21T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Al-Arabi SC · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Al Shahaniya · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Al-Rayyan SC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-29T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Al-Arabi SC · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is NEOM win, at 47.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.