· Analysis updated 06:17 UTC
Nepal W vs Chinese Taipei W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.42 expected goals for Nepal W and 1.14 for Chinese Taipei W, a combined total of 3.56. That distribution gives Nepal W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Nepal W win
65.5% probability
Expected goals
2.42 – 1.14
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Chinese Taipei W away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Nepal W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 66% / 18% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.42 goals for Nepal W and 1.14 for Chinese Taipei W, a combined 3.56 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 69% and both teams to score at 62%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
35%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.5%
- 2–08.3%
- 1–17.9%
- 3–17.7%
- 1–06.9%
Recent form
Nepal W
- 2025-12-02T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Chinese Taipei W · 0-1 (L)
- 2025-11-26T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Indonesia W · 1-2 (L)
- 2025-10-29T11:15:00.000Z · A vs India W · 1-1 (D)
- 2025-10-27T12:30:00.000Z · A vs India W · 2-1 (W)
- 2025-10-24T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Iran W · 0-3 (L)
Chinese Taipei W
- 2026-09-25T06:00:00.000Z · A vs Korea DPR W · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-21T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Japan W · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-17T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Thailand W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Vietnam W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-03-19T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Korea DPR W · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Nepal W win, at 65.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.