· Analysis updated 14:25 UTC
Nera Bogodinţi vs Cetate Deva Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.97 expected goals for Nera Bogodinţi and 2.81 for Cetate Deva, a combined total of 3.78. That distribution gives Cetate Deva the largest share of the 1X2 market at 76%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 76% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Cetate Deva win
75.5% probability
Expected goals
0.97 – 2.81
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Nera Bogodinţi home form
1 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Cetate Deva away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cetate Deva to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 76%, against 10% / 14% / 76% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.97 goals for Nera Bogodinţi and 2.81 for Cetate Deva, a combined 3.78 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
25%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
90%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–29.0%
- 1–28.7%
- 0–38.4%
- 1–38.2%
- 0–16.4%
Recent form
Nera Bogodinţi
- 2026-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ghiroda şi Giarmata Vii · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs CIL Blaj · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Unirea Sântana · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Universitatea Alba Iulia · 0-0 (D)
- 2022-07-09T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Gloria al Oraşului Geoag · 0-13 (L)
Cetate Deva
- 2026-09-30T07:30:00.000Z · A vs Arges Pitesti · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs CIL Blaj · 5-5 (D)
- 2026-09-22T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Unirea Sântana · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Universitatea Alba Iulia · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Progresul Pecica · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga III - Serie 7 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CIL Blaj | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 2 | Unirea Sântana | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 15 |
| 3 | Timişul Şag | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 |
| 4 | Cetate Deva | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 12 |
| 5 | Unirea Alba Iulia | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 11 |
| 6 | Progresul Pecica | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Viitorul Arad | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| 8 | Ghiroda şi Giarmata Vii | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -4 | 9 |
| 9 | Metalurgistul Cugir | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 10 | Poli Timisoara 2 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -10 | 4 |
| 11 | Universitatea Alba Iulia | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -9 | 3 |
| 12 | Nera Bogodinţi | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -17 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cetate Deva win, at 75.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 76% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.