Nesebar vs Asenovets Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 3.65 expected goals for Nesebar and 0.75 for Asenovets, a combined total of 4.40. That distribution gives Nesebar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 88%, with the draw at 8%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 80% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 88% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Nesebar win

88.2% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

3.65 – 0.75

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Nesebar home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Asenovets away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Nesebar to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 88%, against 88% / 8% / 4% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.65 goals for Nesebar and 0.75 for Asenovets, a combined 4.40 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Nesebar win88%

Draw8%

Asenovets win4%

Double chance 1X

96%

Double chance 12

92%

Double chance X2

12%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals92%

Over 2.5 goals80%

Over 3.5 goals63%

Both teams to score51%

Correct score

3–010.0%
4–09.1%
2–08.2%
3–17.5%
4–16.8%

Recent form

Nesebar

2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs CSKA Sofia II · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Rodopa Smolyan · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-27T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Vihren · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Beroe · 4-3 (W)
2026-09-15T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa · 1-1 (D)

Asenovets

2026-05-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Nesebar · 1-8 (L)
2026-05-23T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Rozova dolina · 4-2 (W)
2026-05-16T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletik Kuklen · 1-2 (L)
2026-05-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Gigant Saedinenie · 0-2 (L)
2026-05-09T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Maritsa Milevo · 0-4 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Third League - Southeast table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Levski Krumovgrad	12	12	0	0	28	36
2	Maritsa Milevo	12	9	1	2	15	28
3	Spartak Plovdiv	11	9	0	2	13	27
4	Neftochimic Burgas	11	7	1	3	8	22
5	Sayana Haskovo	12	6	4	2	8	22
6	Yambol 1915	12	6	2	4	15	20
7	Rodopa Smolyan	12	6	2	4	0	20
8	Gigant Saedinenie	12	6	1	5	3	19
9	Sozopol	12	5	1	6	1	16
10	Rozova dolina	12	3	7	2	0	16
11	Dimitrovgrad	12	4	2	6	1	14
12	Zagorets	12	4	2	6	-9	14
13	Botev Plovdiv II	12	2	5	5	-5	11
14	Maritsa Plovdiv	11	2	2	7	-8	8
15	Lokomotiv Plovdiv II	12	2	2	8	-21	8
16	Atletik Kuklen	11	2	1	8	-16	7
17	Sekirovo Rakovski	12	1	3	8	-14	6
18	Levski Karlovo	12	2	0	10	-19	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Nesebar win, at 88.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 80%.

A 88% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.