Municipal Stadium of Chrysoupoli · Referee K. Eleftherios · Analysis updated 14:48 UTC
Nestos Chrisoupolis vs AEK Athens FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.49 expected goals for Nestos Chrisoupolis and 2.76 for AEK Athens FC, a combined total of 3.25. That distribution gives AEK Athens FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 84%, with the draw at 11%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 84% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
AEK Athens FC win
84.4% probability
Expected goals
0.49 – 2.76
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Nestos Chrisoupolis home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
AEK Athens FC away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates AEK Athens FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 84%, against 4% / 11% / 84% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.49 goals for Nestos Chrisoupolis and 2.76 for AEK Athens FC, a combined 3.25 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
16%
Double chance 12
89%
Double chance X2
96%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–214.8%
- 0–313.6%
- 0–110.7%
- 0–49.4%
- 1–27.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.0%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — Yes at 3.10 (model 36.2% vs market 29.2%, edge +7.0 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | YesValue | 3.10 | 29.2% | 36.2% | 2.76 | +7.0 |
| Match result | Home | 27.00 | 3.4% | 4.4% | 22.73 | +1.0 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.60 | 58.4% | 59.4% | 1.68 | +1.0 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.50 | 62.5% | 62.8% | 1.59 | +0.3 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.50 | 37.5% | 37.2% | 2.69 | -0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 7.90 | 11.6% | 11.2% | 8.93 | -0.4 |
| Match result | Away | 1.08 | 85.0% | 84.4% | 1.18 | -0.6 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.25 | 41.6% | 40.6% | 2.46 | -1.0 |
| Both teams to score | No | 1.28 | 70.8% | 63.8% | 1.57 | -7.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Nestos Chrisoupolis
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Niki Volos · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-21T14:00:00.000Z · A vs PAOK II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Pyrgos 1968 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T14:00:00.000Z · A vs OFI · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Zakynthos · 1-1 (D)
AEK Athens FC
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Volos NFC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-17T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Panserraikos · 8-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Asteras Tripolis · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-08T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Lask Linz · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Aris Thessalonikis · 5-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-02T14:00:00.000Z · Nestos Chrisoupolis 0-2 AEK Athens FC (Cup)
Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aris Thessalonikis | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Larisa | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | AEK Athens FC | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 6 |
| 4 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 5 | Panathinaikos | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 6 | Atromitos | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 7 | Kalamata | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
| 8 | Kifisia | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 9 | OFI | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 10 | Volos NFC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 11 | Asteras Tripolis | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 12 | PAOK | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 13 | Levadiakos | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 14 | Nestos Chrisoupolis | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
| 15 | Panserraikos | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -7 | 3 |
| 16 | Marko | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 17 | Ellas Syros | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 | Panionios | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 19 | Niki Volos | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 20 | Panthrakikos | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 21 | Apollon Pontou | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Panetolikos | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 23 | Iraklis 1908 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 24 | Kallithea | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 25 | Pyrgos 1968 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 26 | Anagennisi Karditsas | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 27 | Trikala | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 28 | Zakynthos | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is AEK Athens FC win, at 84.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 84% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.