· Analysis updated 17:04 UTC
Nestos Chrisoupolis vs Kallithea Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.70 expected goals for Nestos Chrisoupolis and 1.25 for Kallithea, a combined total of 1.95. That distribution gives Kallithea the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 31% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Kallithea win
49.6% probability
Expected goals
0.70 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Nestos Chrisoupolis home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kallithea away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kallithea to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 21% / 30% / 50% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.70 goals for Nestos Chrisoupolis and 1.25 for Kallithea, a combined 1.95 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
50%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–117.8%
- 0–014.2%
- 1–112.4%
- 0–211.1%
- 1–09.9%
Recent form
Nestos Chrisoupolis
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Niki Volos · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-21T14:00:00.000Z · A vs PAOK II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Pyrgos 1968 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T14:00:00.000Z · A vs OFI · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Zakynthos · 1-1 (D)
Kallithea
- 2026-09-20T11:45:00.000Z · H vs Panserraikos · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Marko · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-07T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Niki Volos · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Larisa · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-08T17:00:00.000Z · A vs AEK Athens FC · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super League 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marko | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 19 |
| 2 | Kallithea | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 16 |
| 3 | Panionios | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 4 | Larisa | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
| 5 | Panserraikos | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 6 | Ellas Syros | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 7 | Panthrakikos | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 8 | Niki Volos | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| 9 | Apollon Pontou | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 10 | Anagennisi Karditsas | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 11 | Asteras Tripolis II | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 12 | PAOK II | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 8 |
| 13 | Olympiakos Piraeus II | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 6 |
| 14 | Nestos Chrisoupolis | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 15 | Pyrgos 1968 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | Zakynthos | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kallithea win, at 49.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 31%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.