· Analysis updated 00:14 UTC
Nestos Chrisoupolis vs Kavala Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Nestos Chrisoupolis and 1.41 for Kavala, a combined total of 2.71. That distribution gives Kavala the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.4% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.41
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Nestos Chrisoupolis home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kavala away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kavala to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 35% / 26% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Nestos Chrisoupolis and 1.41 for Kavala, a combined 2.71 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.2%
- 0–19.4%
- 1–08.6%
- 1–28.6%
- 2–17.9%
Recent form
Nestos Chrisoupolis
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Olympiakos Piraeus II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kallithea · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T11:45:00.000Z · A vs Panserraikos · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Marko · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Niki Volos · 0-2 (L)
Kavala
- 2026-10-25T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Eleftheroupolis · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Apollon Paralimniou · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Thrakis · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-04-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Nestos Chrisoupolis · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-04-22T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Makedonikos Neapolis · 5-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super League 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marko | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 22 |
| 2 | Kallithea | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 17 |
| 3 | Panserraikos | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 4 | Panionios | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 5 | Larisa | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 6 | Niki Volos | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Anagennisi Karditsas | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 8 | Ellas Syros | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Panthrakikos | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 10 | Asteras Tripolis II | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 11 | Nestos Chrisoupolis | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Apollon Pontou | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 13 | PAOK II | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 14 | Olympiakos Piraeus II | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 | Pyrgos 1968 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | Zakynthos | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.