· Analysis updated 21:38 UTC
Neuchatel Xamax FC vs Étoile Carouge Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Neuchatel Xamax FC and 1.03 for Étoile Carouge, a combined total of 2.51. That distribution gives Neuchatel Xamax FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Neuchatel Xamax FC win
47.6% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Neuchatel Xamax FC home form
3 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Étoile Carouge away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Neuchatel Xamax FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 26% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Neuchatel Xamax FC and 1.03 for Étoile Carouge, a combined 2.51 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.4%
- 1–012.0%
- 2–19.2%
- 2–08.9%
- 0–18.3%
Recent form
Neuchatel Xamax FC
- 2026-10-23T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Langenthal · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-09T17:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Winterthur · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Sochaux · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-25T10:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Zurich · 1-3 (L)
Étoile Carouge
- 2026-10-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-09T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Yverdon Sport · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · A vs SC Kriens · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:15:00.000Z · H vs FC Winterthur · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-04T18:15:00.000Z · H vs FC WIL 1900 · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Challenge League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 17 | 25 |
| 2 | FC Winterthur | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 21 |
| 3 | Yverdon Sport | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 19 |
| 4 | Neuchatel Xamax FC | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 16 |
| 5 | SC Kriens | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 |
| 6 | FC Aarau | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 12 |
| 7 | Étoile Carouge | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 8 | Rapperswil | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 11 |
| 9 | FC WIL 1900 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -6 | 11 |
| 10 | Stade Nyonnais | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | -20 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Neuchatel Xamax FC win, at 47.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.