· Referee L. Berchier · Analysis updated 14:16 UTC
Neuchatel Xamax FC vs FC Winterthur Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.03 expected goals for Neuchatel Xamax FC and 2.00 for FC Winterthur, a combined total of 3.02. That distribution gives FC Winterthur the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FC Winterthur win
60.0% probability
Expected goals
1.03 – 2.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Neuchatel Xamax FC home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
FC Winterthur away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Winterthur to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 19% / 21% / 60% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.03 goals for Neuchatel Xamax FC and 2.00 for FC Winterthur, a combined 3.02 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
40%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
81%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.0%
- 1–210.0%
- 0–19.7%
- 0–29.7%
- 1–36.6%
Recent form
Neuchatel Xamax FC
- 2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Rapperswil · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Stade Nyonnais · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T18:15:00.000Z · A vs FC Winterthur · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-01T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Yverdon Sport · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-28T18:15:00.000Z · A vs FC Aarau · 1-2 (L)
FC Winterthur
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Basel 1893 · 7-3 (W)
- 2026-09-30T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Seuzach · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T18:15:00.000Z · H vs FC Aarau · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Étoile Carouge · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Neuchatel Xamax FC · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Challenge League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 17 | 24 |
| 2 | Yverdon Sport | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 19 |
| 3 | FC Winterthur | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 18 |
| 4 | SC Kriens | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 |
| 5 | Neuchatel Xamax FC | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 15 |
| 6 | FC Aarau | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 12 |
| 7 | Rapperswil | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -4 | 10 |
| 8 | FC WIL 1900 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -6 | 10 |
| 9 | Étoile Carouge | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 9 |
| 10 | Stade Nyonnais | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -16 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC Winterthur win, at 60.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.