Neuilly sur Marne vs Gazelec FC Ajaccio Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Neuilly sur Marne and 1.36 for Gazelec FC Ajaccio, a combined total of 2.74. That distribution gives Neuilly sur Marne the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

63.2% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.38 – 1.36

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Neuilly sur Marne home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Gazelec FC Ajaccio away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Neuilly sur Marne to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 26% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.38 goals for Neuilly sur Marne and 1.36 for Gazelec FC Ajaccio, a combined 2.74 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Neuilly sur Marne win38%

Draw26%

Gazelec FC Ajaccio win37%

Double chance 1X

63%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

62%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals52%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score56%

Correct score

1–112.1%
1–08.9%
0–18.8%
2–18.3%
1–28.3%

Recent form

Neuilly sur Marne

2026-05-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Pays de Cassel · 1-1 (D)
2026-05-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Lille II · 0-2 (L)
2026-04-25T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Croix Football IC · 1-1 (D)
2026-04-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Gazelec FC Ajaccio · 1-0 (W)
2026-04-11T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Le Pays du Valois · 2-2 (D)

Gazelec FC Ajaccio

2026-05-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Amiens SC II · 0-1 (L)
2026-05-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs OCPAM · 1-1 (D)
2026-04-25T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Balagne · 1-1 (D)
2026-04-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Neuilly sur Marne · 0-1 (L)
2026-04-11T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Drancy · 2-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

National 3 - Group E table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Lille II	26	15	3	8	22	48
2	Croix Football IC	26	14	4	8	17	46
3	Le Pays du Valois	26	13	7	6	16	45
4	OCPAM	26	12	5	9	1	40
5	Vimy	26	11	6	9	5	39
6	Olympique St Quentin	26	10	7	9	2	37
7	Drancy	26	10	5	11	6	35
8	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	26	9	7	10	-4	34
9	Metz II	26	10	3	13	-5	33
10	Balagne	26	9	6	11	-1	33
11	Neuilly sur Marne	26	8	7	11	-12	31
12	Pays de Cassel	26	7	8	11	-15	29
13	Amiens SC II	26	8	5	13	-13	29
14	Reims II	26	5	9	12	-19	20

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.

A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.