Neustrelitz vs BAK '07 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.93 expected goals for Neustrelitz and 1.48 for BAK '07, a combined total of 3.40. That distribution gives Neustrelitz the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Neustrelitz win

48.2% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.93 – 1.48

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Neustrelitz home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
BAK '07 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Neustrelitz to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 22% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.93 goals for Neustrelitz and 1.48 for BAK '07, a combined 3.40 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Neustrelitz win48%

Draw22%

BAK '07 win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

52%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%

Over 2.5 goals66%

Over 3.5 goals44%

Both teams to score66%

Correct score

1–19.5%
2–19.1%
1–27.0%
2–26.7%
1–06.4%

Recent form

Neustrelitz

2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · H vs BAK '07 · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Sparta Lichtenberg · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Reinickendorfer Fuchse · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-28T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Optik Rathenow · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-14T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Siedenbollentin · 3-2 (W)

BAK '07

2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Neustrelitz · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Mahlsdorf · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Mecklenburg Schwerin · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-30T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Sparta Lichtenberg · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-16T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Reinickendorfer Fuchse · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-05-30T12:00:00.000Z · Neustrelitz 2-1 BAK '07 (Oberliga - Nordost-Nord)
2025-11-30T13:30:00.000Z · Neustrelitz 2-1 BAK '07 (Oberliga - Nordost-Nord)
2025-02-23T12:30:00.000Z · Neustrelitz 0-0 BAK '07 (Oberliga - Nordost-Nord)
2024-08-24T12:00:00.000Z · Neustrelitz 0-3 BAK '07 (Oberliga - Nordost-Nord)

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	BAK '07	6	4	2	0	6	14
2	Siedenbollentin	6	4	1	1	7	13
3	Lichtenberg	6	4	0	2	4	12
4	Eintracht Mahlsdorf	6	3	1	2	2	10
5	Optik Rathenow	6	3	1	2	0	10
6	Hertha Zehlendorf	6	3	0	3	2	9
7	Anker Wismar	6	3	0	3	-2	9
8	Hansa Rostock II	6	2	2	2	7	8
9	Reinickendorfer Fuchse	6	2	2	2	0	8
10	Mecklenburg Schwerin	6	2	2	2	-1	8
11	FC Lok Stendal	6	2	1	3	-2	7
12	Union Klosterfelde	6	2	1	3	-4	7
13	Tennis Borussia	6	1	3	2	-1	6
14	Sparta Lichtenberg	6	1	2	3	-2	5
15	Makkabi	6	1	2	3	-9	5
16	Neustrelitz	6	1	0	5	-7	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Neustrelitz win, at 48.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.

A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.