· Analysis updated 10:56 UTC
Never Give Up Academy vs Kayanza United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.50 expected goals for Never Give Up Academy and 0.65 for Kayanza United, a combined total of 1.15. That distribution gives Kayanza United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 33%, with the draw at 43%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 11% for over 2.5 goals and 19% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 32%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 33% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.6% probability
Expected goals
0.50 – 0.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Never Give Up Academy home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Kayanza United away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates the draw the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 24% / 43% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.50 goals for Never Give Up Academy and 0.65 for Kayanza United, a combined 1.15 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
57%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–031.7%
- 0–120.6%
- 1–015.8%
- 1–110.3%
- 0–26.7%
Recent form
Never Give Up Academy
- 2026-10-25T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Vital'O · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Young Star · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-14T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Flambeau du Centre · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Olympic Star · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Musongati · 0-2 (L)
Kayanza United
- 2026-10-25T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Bumamuru · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Rukinzo · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-14T13:45:00.000Z · A vs Royal Vision · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Aigle Noir · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Inter Star · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ligue A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Royal Vision | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 19 | 21 |
| 2 | Muzinga | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 18 |
| 3 | Le Messager Ngozi | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 4 | Rukinzo | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 14 |
| 5 | Olympic Star | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | Aigle Noir | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 7 | Ngozi City | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 12 |
| 8 | Bumamuru | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | Musongati | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Flambeau du Centre | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Vital'O | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 9 |
| 12 | Never Give Up Academy | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 13 | Inter Star | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 14 | Kayanza United | 9 | 0 | 6 | 3 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 | Young Star | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -16 | 5 |
| 16 | Panthere Noir | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 19% and over 2.5 goals at 11%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.