Eden Park · Referee B. Aukwai · Analysis updated 18:51 UTC
New Caledonia vs New Zealand Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for New Caledonia and 4.00 for New Zealand, a combined total of 5.53. That distribution gives New Zealand the largest share of the 1X2 market at 80%, with the draw at 11%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 89% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 80% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
New Zealand win
79.8% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 4.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
New Caledonia home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
New Zealand away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
20%
Double chance 12
89%
Double chance X2
90%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–36.5%
- 1–46.5%
- 1–55.2%
- 2–34.9%
- 2–44.9%
Recent form
New Caledonia
- 2026-09-30T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Fiji · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T04:00:00.000Z · A vs Vanuatu · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-24T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Papua New Guinea · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-21T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Solomon Islands · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-03-27T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Jamaica · 0-1 (L)
New Zealand
- 2026-10-01T06:10:00.000Z · A vs Panama · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T11:35:00.000Z · A vs China · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-24T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Palestine · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-06-27T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Belgium · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-06-22T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Egypt · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2025-03-24T06:00:00.000Z · New Caledonia 0-3 New Zealand (World Cup - Qualification Oceania)
- 2022-03-24T17:00:00.000Z · New Caledonia 1-7 New Zealand (World Cup - Qualification Oceania)
- 2019-07-19T23:00:00.000Z · New Caledonia 1-2 New Zealand (Pacific Games)
- 2016-11-15T06:00:00.000Z · New Caledonia 0-0 New Zealand (World Cup - Qualification Oceania)
- 2016-11-12T02:00:00.000Z · New Caledonia 0-2 New Zealand (World Cup - Qualification Oceania)
- 2016-06-08T06:10:00.000Z · New Caledonia 0-1 New Zealand (OFC Nations Cup)
World Cup - Qualification Oceania table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New Zealand | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 15 |
| 2 | New Caledonia | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 3 | Tahiti | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 4 | Samoa | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -11 | 6 |
| 5 | Fiji | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -6 | 5 |
| 6 | Tonga | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Solomon Islands | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 8 | Vanuatu | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 3 |
| 9 | Papua New Guinea | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 10 | Cook Islands | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 11 | American Samoa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is New Zealand win, at 79.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 89%.
A 80% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.