HFC Bank Stadium · Analysis updated 17:03 UTC
New Caledonia vs Solomon Islands Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for New Caledonia and 1.37 for Solomon Islands, a combined total of 3.32. That distribution gives New Caledonia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
New Caledonia win
51.0% probability
Expected goals
1.95 – 1.37
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
New Caledonia home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Solomon Islands away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates New Caledonia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 22% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.95 goals for New Caledonia and 1.37 for Solomon Islands, a combined 3.32 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.6%
- 2–19.4%
- 1–07.0%
- 2–06.9%
- 1–26.6%
Recent form
New Caledonia
- 2026-09-30T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Fiji · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T04:00:00.000Z · A vs Vanuatu · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-24T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Papua New Guinea · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-21T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Solomon Islands · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-03-27T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Jamaica · 0-1 (L)
Solomon Islands
- 2026-09-30T04:00:00.000Z · A vs Papua New Guinea · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-24T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Vanuatu · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-21T04:00:00.000Z · A vs New Caledonia · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-03-30T08:30:00.000Z · A vs St. Kitts and Nevis · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-03-27T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Bulgaria · 2-10 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is New Caledonia win, at 51.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.