Gillette Stadium · Analysis updated 19:49 UTC
New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.65 expected goals for New England Revolution and 1.55 for Chicago Fire, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives New England Revolution the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.8% probability
Expected goals
1.65 – 1.55
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
New England Revolution home form
4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Chicago Fire away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.4%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–28.1%
- 1–06.7%
- 2–26.7%
Recent form
New England Revolution
- 2026-10-10T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Seattle Sounders · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Real Salt Lake · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Orlando City SC · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-13T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Chicago Fire · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-10T00:00:00.000Z · A vs New York City FC · 2-1 (W)
Chicago Fire
- 2026-10-10T18:30:00.000Z · H vs New York City FC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-07T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Vancouver Whitecaps · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Charlotte · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Nashville SC · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T21:30:00.000Z · H vs New England Revolution · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2025-10-18T22:00:00.000Z · New England Revolution 2-2 Chicago Fire (Major League Soccer)
- 2025-09-07T00:30:00.000Z · New England Revolution 2-3 Chicago Fire (Major League Soccer)
- 2025-05-20T23:30:00.000Z · New England Revolution 1-3 Chicago Fire (US Open Cup)
- 2024-05-05T00:30:00.000Z · New England Revolution 1-0 Chicago Fire (Major League Soccer)
- 2024-03-23T18:00:00.000Z · New England Revolution 1-1 Chicago Fire (Major League Soccer)
- 2023-09-24T00:30:00.000Z · New England Revolution 2-2 Chicago Fire (Major League Soccer)
- 2023-05-27T23:30:00.000Z · New England Revolution 3-3 Chicago Fire (Major League Soccer)
- 2022-10-09T18:30:00.000Z · New England Revolution 1-1 Chicago Fire (Major League Soccer)
- 2022-08-31T23:30:00.000Z · New England Revolution 0-0 Chicago Fire (Major League Soccer)
- 2021-10-16T23:00:00.000Z · New England Revolution 2-2 Chicago Fire (Major League Soccer)
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 28 | 15 | 6 | 7 | 31 | 51 |
| 2 | St. Louis City | 28 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 16 | 50 |
| 3 | FC Dallas | 28 | 13 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 47 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 28 | 13 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 46 |
| 5 | Houston Dynamo | 28 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 45 |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 29 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 42 |
| 7 | Seattle Sounders | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 3 | 41 |
| 8 | Colorado Rapids | 28 | 11 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 37 |
| 9 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | -11 | 36 |
| 10 | Portland Timbers | 28 | 9 | 6 | 13 | -3 | 33 |
| 11 | Real Salt Lake | 28 | 9 | 5 | 14 | -5 | 32 |
| 12 | San Diego | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | -3 | 32 |
| 13 | Austin | 28 | 7 | 10 | 11 | -15 | 31 |
| 14 | Minnesota United FC | 28 | 7 | 9 | 12 | -9 | 30 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 28 | 6 | 4 | 18 | -33 | 22 |
| 1 | Nashville SC | 28 | 19 | 6 | 3 | 37 | 63 |
| 2 | Inter Miami | 28 | 13 | 10 | 5 | 18 | 49 |
| 3 | Chicago Fire | 28 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 48 |
| 4 | New England Revolution | 28 | 14 | 4 | 10 | 6 | 46 |
| 5 | Charlotte | 28 | 13 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 46 |
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 28 | 12 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 42 |
| 7 | Orlando City SC | 28 | 11 | 4 | 13 | -15 | 37 |
| 8 | New York Red Bulls | 28 | 10 | 6 | 12 | -14 | 36 |
| 9 | FC Cincinnati | 27 | 9 | 9 | 9 | -7 | 36 |
| 10 | New York City FC | 28 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 4 | 33 |
| 11 | Toronto FC | 28 | 7 | 11 | 10 | -11 | 32 |
| 12 | DC United | 27 | 6 | 12 | 9 | -12 | 30 |
| 13 | Columbus Crew | 28 | 8 | 5 | 15 | -5 | 29 |
| 14 | Atlanta United FC | 28 | 7 | 6 | 15 | -15 | 27 |
| 15 | CF Montreal | 28 | 6 | 6 | 16 | -21 | 24 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.