Alder Park · Analysis updated 14:16 UTC
New Lambton vs Cessnock City Hornets Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.20 expected goals for New Lambton and 1.75 for Cessnock City Hornets, a combined total of 3.95. That distribution gives New Lambton the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
New Lambton win
48.5% probability
Expected goals
2.20 – 1.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
New Lambton home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cessnock City Hornets away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates New Lambton to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 20% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.20 goals for New Lambton and 1.75 for Cessnock City Hornets, a combined 3.95 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.2%
- 1–17.4%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–26.5%
- 3–16.0%
Recent form
New Lambton
- 2026-08-29T04:00:00.000Z · A vs Kahibah · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-22T06:00:00.000Z · H vs Kahibah · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-15T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Cessnock City Hornets · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-08-08T06:30:00.000Z · A vs Dudley Redhead United · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-01T05:00:00.000Z · A vs West Wallsend · 2-0 (W)
Cessnock City Hornets
- 2026-08-15T04:00:00.000Z · A vs New Lambton · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-08-08T06:30:00.000Z · H vs Newcastle Croatia FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-26T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Wallsend Red Devils · 3-7 (L)
- 2026-07-18T06:30:00.000Z · H vs West Wallsend · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-07-11T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Dudley Redhead United · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-15T04:00:00.000Z · New Lambton 4-3 Cessnock City Hornets (NNSW League 1)
- 2026-05-23T04:00:00.000Z · New Lambton 3-2 Cessnock City Hornets (NNSW League 1)
NNSW League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wallsend Red Devils | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 20 |
| 2 | Lake Macquarie | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 19 |
| 3 | Dudley Redhead United | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 19 |
| 4 | New Lambton | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 17 |
| 5 | Newcastle Croatia FC | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 12 |
| 6 | West Wallsend | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 10 |
| 7 | Cessnock City Hornets | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 9 |
| 8 | Singleton Strikers | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 9 |
| 9 | Toronto Awaba Stags | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -14 | 7 |
| 10 | South Cardiff | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is New Lambton win, at 48.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.