Alder Park · Analysis updated 13:21 UTC
New Lambton vs Lake Macquarie Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.73 expected goals for New Lambton and 1.83 for Lake Macquarie, a combined total of 3.56. That distribution gives Lake Macquarie the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
63.0% probability
Expected goals
1.73 – 1.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
New Lambton home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lake Macquarie away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lake Macquarie to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 37% / 22% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.73 goals for New Lambton and 1.83 for Lake Macquarie, a combined 3.56 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.0%
- 1–28.2%
- 2–17.8%
- 2–27.1%
- 0–15.2%
Recent form
New Lambton
- 2026-08-29T04:00:00.000Z · A vs Kahibah · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-22T06:00:00.000Z · H vs Kahibah · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-15T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Cessnock City Hornets · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-08-08T06:30:00.000Z · A vs Dudley Redhead United · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-01T05:00:00.000Z · A vs West Wallsend · 2-0 (W)
Lake Macquarie
- 2026-08-15T04:00:00.000Z · A vs Toronto Awaba Stags · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-09T05:00:00.000Z · H vs South Cardiff · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-01T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Singleton Strikers · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-07-25T04:00:00.000Z · A vs New Lambton · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-07-11T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Newcastle Croatia FC · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
NNSW League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wallsend Red Devils | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 20 |
| 2 | Lake Macquarie | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 19 |
| 3 | Dudley Redhead United | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 19 |
| 4 | New Lambton | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 17 |
| 5 | Newcastle Croatia FC | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 12 |
| 6 | West Wallsend | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 10 |
| 7 | Cessnock City Hornets | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 9 |
| 8 | Singleton Strikers | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 9 |
| 9 | Toronto Awaba Stags | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -14 | 7 |
| 10 | South Cardiff | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.