Rio Grande Credit Union Field at Isotopes Park · Referee M. Corrigan · Analysis updated 14:48 UTC
New Mexico United vs San Antonio Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.22 expected goals for New Mexico United and 1.08 for San Antonio, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives New Mexico United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.6% probability
Expected goals
1.22 – 1.08
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
New Mexico United home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
San Antonio away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.2%
- 1–012.2%
- 0–110.8%
- 0–010.0%
- 2–18.1%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.1%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.10 (model 53.5% vs market 44.3%, edge +9.2 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.10 | 44.3% | 53.5% | 1.87 | +9.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.57 | 60.1% | 60.7% | 1.65 | +0.6 |
| Match result | Home | 2.30 | 39.1% | 39.3% | 2.54 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.20 | 28.1% | 28.3% | 3.53 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.40 | 67.4% | 67.6% | 1.48 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 2.75 | 32.7% | 32.4% | 3.09 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 72.6% | 71.7% | 1.39 | -0.9 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.67 | 55.7% | 46.5% | 2.15 | -9.2 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
New Mexico United
- 2026-09-20T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Colorado Springs · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-17T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Birmingham Legion · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-09-12T01:30:00.000Z · H vs Indy Eleven · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T02:30:00.000Z · A vs Las Vegas Lights · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T01:30:00.000Z · H vs San Antonio · 1-2 (L)
San Antonio
- 2026-10-04T02:30:00.000Z · A vs Las Vegas Lights · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-30T00:30:00.000Z · H vs SV Darmstadt 98 · 0-7 (L)
- 2026-09-27T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Tampa Bay Rowdies · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Sacramento Republic · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Colorado Springs · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-22T00:30:00.000Z · New Mexico United 0-1 San Antonio (USL Championship)
- 2025-11-02T01:00:00.000Z · New Mexico United 2-0 San Antonio (USL Championship)
- 2025-09-07T00:30:00.000Z · New Mexico United 1-0 San Antonio (USL Championship)
- 2025-07-27T01:00:00.000Z · New Mexico United 2-2 San Antonio (USL League One Cup)
- 2025-06-22T01:00:00.000Z · New Mexico United 4-2 San Antonio (USL Championship)
- 2024-06-30T01:00:00.000Z · New Mexico United 3-2 San Antonio (USL Championship)
- 2024-05-26T01:00:00.000Z · New Mexico United 2-1 San Antonio (USL Championship)
- 2023-08-13T01:00:00.000Z · New Mexico United 0-3 San Antonio (USL Championship)
- 2023-05-28T00:30:00.000Z · New Mexico United 1-2 San Antonio (USL Championship)
- 2022-09-18T00:30:00.000Z · New Mexico United 1-1 San Antonio (USL Championship)
USL Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 30 | 18 | 7 | 5 | 26 | 61 |
| 2 | Charleston Battery | 30 | 16 | 5 | 9 | 21 | 53 |
| 3 | Detroit City | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 13 | 51 |
| 4 | Louisville City | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 47 |
| 5 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 30 | 13 | 6 | 11 | 3 | 45 |
| 6 | Hartford Athletic | 30 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 43 |
| 7 | Rhode Island | 30 | 12 | 6 | 12 | 9 | 42 |
| 8 | Miami FC | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -10 | 36 |
| 9 | Indy Eleven | 30 | 9 | 7 | 14 | -6 | 34 |
| 10 | Loudoun United | 30 | 6 | 13 | 11 | -10 | 31 |
| 11 | Birmingham Legion | 30 | 6 | 12 | 12 | -6 | 30 |
| 12 | Brooklyn | 30 | 5 | 6 | 19 | -29 | 21 |
| 13 | Sporting JAX | 30 | 3 | 5 | 22 | -46 | 14 |
| 1 | New Mexico United | 30 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 52 |
| 2 | Sacramento Republic | 30 | 13 | 12 | 5 | 14 | 51 |
| 3 | El Paso Locomotive | 30 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 50 |
| 4 | Lexington | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 48 |
| 5 | Colorado Springs | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 47 |
| 6 | San Antonio | 30 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 45 |
| 7 | FC Tulsa | 30 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 43 |
| 8 | Phoenix Rising | 30 | 10 | 10 | 10 | -1 | 40 |
| 9 | Orange County SC | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -10 | 39 |
| 10 | Oakland Roots | 30 | 9 | 11 | 10 | -1 | 38 |
| 11 | Las Vegas Lights | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -7 | 36 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay | 30 | 6 | 6 | 18 | -20 | 24 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.