New York City FC vs Atlanta United FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.43 expected goals for New York City FC and 1.45 for Atlanta United FC, a combined total of 2.88. That distribution gives Atlanta United FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Draw/Away

63.0% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.43 – 1.45

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

New York City FC home form
2 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Atlanta United FC away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

New York City FC win37%

Draw25%

Atlanta United FC win38%

Double chance 1X

62%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

63%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals78%

Over 2.5 goals55%

Over 3.5 goals33%

Both teams to score58%

Correct score

1–111.7%
1–28.5%
2–18.3%
0–18.2%
1–08.0%

Recent form

New York City FC

2026-10-17T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Los Angeles FC · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-14T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Inter Miami · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-10T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Chicago Fire · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-26T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Atlanta United FC · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-18T23:30:00.000Z · H vs New York Red Bulls · 0-1 (L)

Atlanta United FC

2026-10-14T23:30:00.000Z · A vs CF Montreal · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-10T23:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Cincinnati · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-26T23:30:00.000Z · H vs New York City FC · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-20T02:30:00.000Z · A vs Portland Timbers · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T23:30:00.000Z · A vs DC United · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-09-26T23:30:00.000Z · New York City FC 2-2 Atlanta United FC (Major League Soccer)
2025-06-12T23:30:00.000Z · New York City FC 4-0 Atlanta United FC (Major League Soccer)
2025-03-29T23:30:00.000Z · New York City FC 3-4 Atlanta United FC (Major League Soccer)
2024-07-17T23:30:00.000Z · New York City FC 2-2 Atlanta United FC (Major League Soccer)
2024-04-06T23:30:00.000Z · New York City FC 1-1 Atlanta United FC (Major League Soccer)
2023-06-21T23:30:00.000Z · New York City FC 2-2 Atlanta United FC (Major League Soccer)
2023-04-08T23:30:00.000Z · New York City FC 1-1 Atlanta United FC (Major League Soccer)
2022-10-09T18:30:00.000Z · New York City FC 2-1 Atlanta United FC (Major League Soccer)
2022-07-03T21:00:00.000Z · New York City FC 2-2 Atlanta United FC (Major League Soccer)
2021-11-21T20:00:00.000Z · New York City FC 2-0 Atlanta United FC (Major League Soccer)

Major League Soccer table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	31	16	7	8	31	55
2	FC Dallas	31	15	9	7	11	54
3	St. Louis City	31	14	9	8	12	51
4	San Jose Earthquakes	31	13	9	9	7	48
5	Houston Dynamo	31	13	9	9	2	48
6	Los Angeles FC	31	12	10	9	15	46
7	Seattle Sounders	31	11	10	10	2	43
8	Colorado Rapids	31	12	6	13	1	42
9	Los Angeles Galaxy	31	10	10	11	-9	40
10	Real Salt Lake	31	11	6	14	0	39
11	Portland Timbers	31	10	7	14	-4	37
12	San Diego	31	8	11	12	-3	35
13	Minnesota United FC	31	8	11	12	-8	35
14	Austin	31	8	10	13	-17	34
15	Sporting Kansas City	31	6	4	21	-40	22
1	Nashville SC	31	21	7	3	43	70
2	New England Revolution	31	17	4	10	9	55
3	Inter Miami	31	15	10	6	20	55
4	Chicago Fire	31	15	6	10	9	51
5	Charlotte	31	13	8	10	7	47
6	Philadelphia Union	31	13	7	11	12	46
7	Orlando City SC	31	12	6	13	-12	42
8	FC Cincinnati	31	11	9	11	-7	42
9	New York Red Bulls	31	11	6	14	-15	39
10	Columbus Crew	31	11	5	15	1	38
11	Toronto FC	31	8	12	11	-11	36
12	New York City FC	31	8	11	12	2	35
13	DC United	31	7	12	12	-17	33
14	Atlanta United FC	31	8	6	17	-15	30
15	CF Montreal	31	6	7	18	-26	25

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.

A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.