USA · Major League Soccer · Matchweek 1723:30

3 – 1

Saturday, 25 July 2026

Yankee Stadium · Referee Ricardo Montero, Costa Rica · Analysis updated 10:34 UTC

New York City FC vs Chicago Fire Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for New York City FC and 1.58 for Chicago Fire, a combined total of 3.33. That distribution gives New York City FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

65.0% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.75 – 1.58

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

New York City FC home form
2 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Chicago Fire away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

New York City FC win42%

Draw23%

Chicago Fire win35%

Double chance 1X

65%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

58%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals65%

Over 3.5 goals43%

Both teams to score66%

Correct score

1–19.9%
2–18.7%
1–27.8%
2–26.8%
1–06.3%

Recent form

New York City FC

2026-10-24T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Orlando City SC · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-17T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Los Angeles FC · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-14T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Inter Miami · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-10T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Chicago Fire · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-26T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Atlanta United FC · 2-2 (D)

Chicago Fire

2026-10-24T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Atlanta United FC · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-17T23:30:00.000Z · A vs New England Revolution · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-15T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Philadelphia Union · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-10T18:30:00.000Z · H vs New York City FC · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-07T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Vancouver Whitecaps · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-10-10T18:30:00.000Z · New York City FC 1-2 Chicago Fire (Major League Soccer)
2026-07-25T23:30:00.000Z · New York City FC 3-1 Chicago Fire (Major League Soccer)
2025-09-14T00:30:00.000Z · New York City FC 3-1 Chicago Fire (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-25T19:00:00.000Z · New York City FC 3-1 Chicago Fire (Major League Soccer)
2024-08-24T23:30:00.000Z · New York City FC 2-2 Chicago Fire (Major League Soccer)
2024-07-14T00:30:00.000Z · New York City FC 0-0 Chicago Fire (Major League Soccer)
2023-10-22T22:00:00.000Z · New York City FC 1-0 Chicago Fire (Major League Soccer)
2023-03-05T01:30:00.000Z · New York City FC 1-1 Chicago Fire (Major League Soccer)
2022-08-21T22:00:00.000Z · New York City FC 2-0 Chicago Fire (Major League Soccer)
2022-05-22T21:00:00.000Z · New York City FC 1-0 Chicago Fire (Major League Soccer)

Major League Soccer table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	31	16	7	8	31	55
2	FC Dallas	31	15	9	7	11	54
3	St. Louis City	31	14	9	8	12	51
4	San Jose Earthquakes	31	13	9	9	7	48
5	Houston Dynamo	31	13	9	9	2	48
6	Los Angeles FC	32	12	11	9	15	47
7	Seattle Sounders	31	11	10	10	2	43
8	Colorado Rapids	31	12	6	13	1	42
9	Los Angeles Galaxy	32	10	11	11	-9	41
10	Real Salt Lake	31	11	6	14	0	39
11	Portland Timbers	31	10	7	14	-4	37
12	San Diego	31	8	11	12	-3	35
13	Minnesota United FC	31	8	11	12	-8	35
14	Austin	31	8	10	13	-17	34
15	Sporting Kansas City	31	6	4	21	-40	22
1	Nashville SC	31	21	7	3	43	70
2	New England Revolution	31	17	4	10	9	55
3	Inter Miami	31	15	10	6	20	55
4	Chicago Fire	31	15	6	10	9	51
5	Charlotte	31	13	8	10	7	47
6	Philadelphia Union	31	13	7	11	12	46
7	Orlando City SC	31	12	6	13	-12	42
8	FC Cincinnati	31	11	9	11	-7	42
9	New York Red Bulls	31	11	6	14	-15	39
10	Columbus Crew	31	11	5	15	1	38
11	Toronto FC	31	8	12	11	-11	36
12	New York City FC	31	8	11	12	2	35
13	DC United	31	7	12	12	-17	33
14	Atlanta United FC	31	8	6	17	-15	30
15	CF Montreal	31	6	7	18	-26	25

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.