USA · Major League Soccer · Matchweek 1922:00

2 – 3

Sunday, 16 August 2026

Yankee Stadium · Referee Sergii Demianchuk, USA · Analysis updated 07:12 UTC

New York City FC vs Philadelphia Union Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.47 expected goals for New York City FC and 1.53 for Philadelphia Union, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Philadelphia Union the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

63.5% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model78/100

Expected goals

1.47 – 1.53

Model version

poisson-market-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

New York City FC home form
2 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Philadelphia Union away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Philadelphia Union to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 37% / 24% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.47 goals for New York City FC and 1.53 for Philadelphia Union, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

New York City FC win37%

Draw24%

Philadelphia Union win39%

Double chance 1X

61%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

64%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals58%

Over 3.5 goals35%

Both teams to score60%

Correct score

1–111.2%
1–28.6%
2–18.2%
0–17.6%
1–07.3%

Odds vs model — value finder

Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.1%), compared with our model probability.

No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.

Market	Selection	Odds	Market %	Model %	Fair odds	Edge
Goals	Under 3.5	1.50	63.0%	64.7%	1.55	+1.7
Match result	Away	2.46	38.0%	39.2%	2.55	+1.2
Both teams to score	No	2.40	38.5%	39.7%	2.52	+1.2
Double chance	Draw/Away	1.48	62.5%	63.5%	1.57	+1.0
Goals	Under 2.5	2.25	41.9%	42.3%	2.36	+0.4
Match result	Home	2.56	36.5%	36.5%	2.74	0.0
Double chance	Home/Away	1.22	75.8%	75.7%	1.32	-0.1
Goals	Over 2.5	1.62	58.1%	57.7%	1.73	-0.4
Double chance	Home/Draw	1.50	61.7%	60.8%	1.64	-0.9
Both teams to score	Yes	1.50	61.5%	60.3%	1.66	-1.2
Match result	Draw	3.65	25.6%	24.3%	4.12	-1.3
Goals	Over 3.5	2.55	37.0%	35.3%	2.83	-1.7

Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.

Recent form

New York City FC

2026-10-17T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Los Angeles FC · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-14T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Inter Miami · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-10T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Chicago Fire · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-26T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Atlanta United FC · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-18T23:30:00.000Z · H vs New York Red Bulls · 0-1 (L)

Philadelphia Union

2026-10-10T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Real Salt Lake · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-26T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Orlando City SC · 4-2 (W)
2026-09-20T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Kansas City · 4-3 (W)
2026-09-14T01:00:00.000Z · A vs San Diego · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-09T23:45:00.000Z · H vs FC Cincinnati · 5-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Major League Soccer table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	31	16	7	8	31	55
2	FC Dallas	31	15	9	7	11	54
3	St. Louis City	31	14	9	8	12	51
4	San Jose Earthquakes	31	13	9	9	7	48
5	Houston Dynamo	31	13	9	9	2	48
6	Los Angeles FC	31	12	10	9	15	46
7	Colorado Rapids	31	12	6	13	1	42
8	Seattle Sounders	30	11	9	10	2	42
9	Los Angeles Galaxy	31	10	10	11	-9	40
10	Real Salt Lake	31	11	6	14	0	39
11	Minnesota United FC	31	8	11	12	-8	35
12	Portland Timbers	30	9	7	14	-5	34
13	San Diego	30	8	10	12	-3	34
14	Austin	31	8	10	13	-17	34
15	Sporting Kansas City	31	6	4	21	-40	22
1	Nashville SC	31	21	7	3	43	70
2	New England Revolution	31	17	4	10	9	55
3	Inter Miami	31	15	10	6	20	55
4	Chicago Fire	31	15	6	10	9	51
5	Charlotte	30	13	8	9	8	47
6	Philadelphia Union	31	13	7	11	12	46
7	Orlando City SC	31	12	6	13	-12	42
8	FC Cincinnati	31	11	9	11	-7	42
9	New York Red Bulls	31	11	6	14	-15	39
10	Columbus Crew	31	11	5	15	1	38
11	Toronto FC	31	8	12	11	-11	36
12	New York City FC	31	8	11	12	2	35
13	DC United	31	7	12	12	-17	33
14	Atlanta United FC	31	8	6	17	-15	30
15	CF Montreal	31	6	7	18	-26	25

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.