Sports Illustrated Stadium · Referee Andrew Samuel, Trinidad and Tobago · Analysis updated 22:06 UTC
New York City FC vs Santos Laguna Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.66 expected goals for New York City FC and 1.13 for Santos Laguna, a combined total of 2.79. That distribution gives New York City FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
New York City FC win
49.5% probability
Expected goals
1.66 – 1.13
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
New York City FC home form
2 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Santos Laguna away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates New York City FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 24% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.66 goals for New York City FC and 1.13 for Santos Laguna, a combined 2.79 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.5%
- 1–010.2%
- 2–19.5%
- 2–08.4%
- 0–17.0%
Recent form
New York City FC
- 2026-10-24T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Orlando City SC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-17T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Los Angeles FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-14T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Inter Miami · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Chicago Fire · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Atlanta United FC · 2-2 (D)
Santos Laguna
- 2026-09-27T03:05:00.000Z · H vs CF Pachuca · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-21T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Toluca · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-14T01:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Juarez · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Cruz Azul · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T03:10:00.000Z · H vs Tigres UANL · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-06T23:30:00.000Z · New York City FC 2-0 Santos Laguna (Leagues Cup)
Leagues Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toluca | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 15 |
| 2 | Leon | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 15 |
| 3 | Club America | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 11 |
| 4 | Monterrey | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 5 | Chicago Fire | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 9 |
| 6 | Real Salt Lake | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 7 | Austin | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 8 | Columbus Crew | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 9 | Charlotte | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
| 10 | Portland Timbers | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 11 | FC Cincinnati | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 12 | Cruz Azul | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 13 | FC Dallas | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 14 | FC Juarez | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 15 | San Diego | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 16 | Los Angeles FC | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 17 | Minnesota United FC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 18 | Orlando City SC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 19 | Guadalajara Chivas | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 20 | Nashville SC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 21 | Inter Miami | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 22 | New York City FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 23 | Tigres UANL | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 24 | Seattle Sounders | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 25 | Philadelphia Union | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 26 | CF Pachuca | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 27 | Santos Laguna | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 28 | Atlas | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 29 | Necaxa | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 30 | Atlante FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 3 |
| 31 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 32 | Atletico San Luis | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1 |
| 33 | Club Queretaro | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1 |
| 34 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1 |
| 35 | Club Tijuana | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 0 |
| 36 | Puebla | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -7 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is New York City FC win, at 49.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.