MSU Soccer Park · Analysis updated 09:33 UTC
New York RB II vs Huntsville City Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.89 expected goals for New York RB II and 1.11 for Huntsville City, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives New York RB II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
New York RB II win
55.6% probability
Expected goals
1.89 – 1.11
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
New York RB II home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Huntsville City away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.4%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–09.4%
- 2–08.9%
- 3–16.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.5%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.88 (model 43.1% vs market 32.1%, edge +11.0 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.88 | 32.1% | 43.1% | 2.32 | +11.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.00 | 22.2% | 22.4% | 4.46 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.20 | 77.8% | 78.0% | 1.28 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.10 | 44.4% | 44.5% | 2.25 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 1.60 | 55.6% | 55.6% | 1.80 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 4.00 | 22.2% | 22.1% | 4.52 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.20 | 77.8% | 77.7% | 1.29 | -0.1 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.36 | 67.9% | 56.9% | 1.76 | -11.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
New York RB II
- 2026-10-18T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Crown Legacy · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Huntsville City · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Huntsville City · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T23:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Cincinnati II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-08T21:00:00.000Z · A vs New York City II · 2-4 (L)
Huntsville City
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs New York RB II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter Miami II · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-10T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Chattanooga · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T23:00:00.000Z · A vs New England II · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-23T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Columbus Crew II · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · New York RB II 1-2 Huntsville City (MLS Next Pro)
- 2025-09-14T00:00:00.000Z · New York RB II 3-2 Huntsville City (MLS Next Pro)
- 2025-07-06T23:00:00.000Z · New York RB II 1-2 Huntsville City (MLS Next Pro)
- 2024-08-18T00:00:00.000Z · New York RB II 2-3 Huntsville City (MLS Next Pro)
- 2023-05-27T00:00:00.000Z · New York RB II 2-1 Huntsville City (MLS Next Pro)
- 2023-04-16T23:00:00.000Z · New York RB II 1-0 Huntsville City (MLS Next Pro)
MLS Next Pro table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is New York RB II win, at 55.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.