MSU Soccer Park · Analysis updated 08:48 UTC
New York RB II vs New England II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.06 expected goals for New York RB II and 1.58 for New England II, a combined total of 3.64. That distribution gives New York RB II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
New York RB II win
49.0% probability
Expected goals
2.06 – 1.58
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
New York RB II home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
New England II away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates New York RB II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 21% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.06 goals for New York RB II and 1.58 for New England II, a combined 3.64 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.8%
- 1–18.5%
- 2–27.0%
- 1–26.7%
- 3–16.0%
Recent form
New York RB II
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Huntsville City · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T23:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Cincinnati II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-08T21:00:00.000Z · A vs New York City II · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-08-29T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Connecticut FC · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-23T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Toronto II · 5-1 (W)
New England II
- 2026-08-30T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Huntsville City · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-22T21:00:00.000Z · A vs New York City II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-19T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter Miami II · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-08-16T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Philadelphia Union II · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-08-09T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Connecticut FC · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
MLS Next Pro table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is New York RB II win, at 49.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.