MSU Soccer Park · Analysis updated 08:37 UTC
New York RB II vs Toronto II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.97 expected goals for New York RB II and 2.03 for Toronto II, a combined total of 4.00. That distribution gives Toronto II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
61.3% probability
Expected goals
1.97 – 2.03
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
New York RB II home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Toronto II away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–27.4%
- 1–17.3%
- 2–27.3%
- 2–17.2%
- 1–35.0%
Recent form
New York RB II
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Huntsville City · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T23:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Cincinnati II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-08T21:00:00.000Z · A vs New York City II · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-08-29T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Connecticut FC · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-23T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Toronto II · 5-1 (W)
Toronto II
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs New England II · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Orlando City II · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-08T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Columbus Crew II · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-04T23:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Cincinnati II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-28T23:00:00.000Z · H vs New York City II · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-23T23:00:00.000Z · New York RB II 5-1 Toronto II (MLS Next Pro)
- 2026-06-21T23:00:00.000Z · New York RB II 5-0 Toronto II (MLS Next Pro)
- 2026-05-08T15:00:00.000Z · New York RB II 2-1 Toronto II (MLS Next Pro)
- 2025-10-05T17:00:00.000Z · New York RB II 2-1 Toronto II (MLS Next Pro)
- 2025-07-11T23:00:00.000Z · New York RB II 2-2 Toronto II (MLS Next Pro)
- 2024-09-22T21:00:00.000Z · New York RB II 2-0 Toronto II (MLS Next Pro)
- 2024-07-28T19:00:00.000Z · New York RB II 3-4 Toronto II (MLS Next Pro)
- 2024-06-09T23:00:00.000Z · New York RB II 2-1 Toronto II (MLS Next Pro)
- 2023-09-01T23:00:00.000Z · New York RB II 3-0 Toronto II (MLS Next Pro)
- 2023-08-09T23:00:00.000Z · New York RB II 1-2 Toronto II (MLS Next Pro)
MLS Next Pro table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 61.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.