USA · Major League Soccer · Matchweek 2123:30

1 – 1

Saturday, 22 August 2026

Sports Illustrated Stadium · Referee Sergii Demianchuk, USA · Analysis updated 14:48 UTC

New York Red Bulls vs Chicago Fire Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for New York Red Bulls and 1.88 for Chicago Fire, a combined total of 3.38. That distribution gives Chicago Fire the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Chicago Fire win

46.6% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.50 – 1.88

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

New York Red Bulls home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Chicago Fire away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Chicago Fire to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 31% / 22% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for New York Red Bulls and 1.88 for Chicago Fire, a combined 3.38 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

New York Red Bulls win31%

Draw22%

Chicago Fire win47%

Double chance 1X

53%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

69%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%

Over 2.5 goals66%

Over 3.5 goals44%

Both teams to score66%

Correct score

1–19.6%
1–29.0%
2–17.2%
2–26.8%
0–16.4%

Recent form

New York Red Bulls

2026-10-10T23:30:00.000Z · H vs San Diego · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-30T23:30:00.000Z · H vs St. Louis City · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-18T23:30:00.000Z · A vs New York City FC · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Columbus Crew · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-10T02:30:00.000Z · A vs Los Angeles FC · 0-2 (L)

Chicago Fire

2026-10-10T18:30:00.000Z · H vs New York City FC · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-07T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Vancouver Whitecaps · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-26T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Charlotte · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-20T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Nashville SC · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-13T21:30:00.000Z · H vs New England Revolution · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Major League Soccer table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	28	15	6	7	31	51
2	St. Louis City	28	14	8	6	16	50
3	FC Dallas	28	13	8	7	7	47
4	San Jose Earthquakes	28	13	7	8	10	46
5	Houston Dynamo	28	13	6	9	2	45
6	Los Angeles FC	29	11	9	9	13	42
7	Seattle Sounders	28	11	8	9	3	41
8	Colorado Rapids	28	11	4	13	0	37
9	Los Angeles Galaxy	29	9	9	11	-11	36
10	Portland Timbers	28	9	6	13	-3	33
11	Real Salt Lake	28	9	5	14	-5	32
12	San Diego	28	8	8	12	-3	32
13	Austin	28	7	10	11	-15	31
14	Minnesota United FC	28	7	9	12	-9	30
15	Sporting Kansas City	28	6	4	18	-33	22
1	Nashville SC	28	19	6	3	37	63
2	Inter Miami	28	13	10	5	18	49
3	Chicago Fire	28	14	6	8	11	48
4	New England Revolution	28	14	4	10	6	46
5	Charlotte	28	13	7	8	10	46
6	Philadelphia Union	28	12	6	10	11	42
7	Orlando City SC	28	11	4	13	-15	37
8	New York Red Bulls	28	10	6	12	-14	36
9	FC Cincinnati	27	9	9	9	-7	36
10	New York City FC	28	8	9	11	4	33
11	Toronto FC	28	7	11	10	-11	32
12	DC United	27	6	12	9	-12	30
13	Columbus Crew	28	8	5	15	-5	29
14	Atlanta United FC	28	7	6	15	-15	27
15	CF Montreal	28	6	6	16	-21	24

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Chicago Fire win, at 46.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.

A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.