USA · Major League Soccer · Matchweek 2223:30

1 – 3

Saturday, 29 August 2026

Sports Illustrated Stadium · Referee Drew Fischer, Canada · Analysis updated 13:38 UTC

New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.60 expected goals for New York Red Bulls and 1.78 for Philadelphia Union, a combined total of 3.38. That distribution gives Philadelphia Union the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

65.0% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.60 – 1.78

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

New York Red Bulls home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Philadelphia Union away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

New York Red Bulls win35%

Draw23%

Philadelphia Union win42%

Double chance 1X

58%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

65%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%

Over 2.5 goals66%

Over 3.5 goals44%

Both teams to score66%

Correct score

1–19.7%
1–28.6%
2–17.8%
2–26.9%
0–16.1%

Recent form

New York Red Bulls

2026-10-10T23:30:00.000Z · H vs San Diego · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-30T23:30:00.000Z · H vs St. Louis City · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-18T23:30:00.000Z · A vs New York City FC · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Columbus Crew · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-10T02:30:00.000Z · A vs Los Angeles FC · 0-2 (L)

Philadelphia Union

2026-10-10T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Real Salt Lake · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-26T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Orlando City SC · 4-2 (W)
2026-09-20T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Kansas City · 4-3 (W)
2026-09-14T01:00:00.000Z · A vs San Diego · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-09T23:45:00.000Z · H vs FC Cincinnati · 5-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-08-29T23:30:00.000Z · New York Red Bulls 1-3 Philadelphia Union (Major League Soccer)
2026-07-22T23:30:00.000Z · New York Red Bulls 1-3 Philadelphia Union (Major League Soccer)
2025-08-16T23:30:00.000Z · New York Red Bulls 1-0 Philadelphia Union (Major League Soccer)
2025-08-13T23:30:00.000Z · New York Red Bulls 2-3 Philadelphia Union (US Open Cup)
2025-07-12T23:30:00.000Z · New York Red Bulls 0-2 Philadelphia Union (Major League Soccer)
2024-08-31T23:30:00.000Z · New York Red Bulls 0-2 Philadelphia Union (Major League Soccer)
2024-07-06T23:30:00.000Z · New York Red Bulls 0-0 Philadelphia Union (Major League Soccer)
2023-09-03T23:30:00.000Z · New York Red Bulls 1-4 Philadelphia Union (Major League Soccer)
2023-08-09T00:00:00.000Z · New York Red Bulls 1-1 Philadelphia Union (Leagues Cup)
2023-05-06T23:30:00.000Z · New York Red Bulls 0-1 Philadelphia Union (Major League Soccer)

Major League Soccer table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	29	15	7	7	31	52
2	St. Louis City	29	14	9	6	16	51
3	FC Dallas	29	14	8	7	8	50
4	San Jose Earthquakes	29	13	8	8	10	47
5	Houston Dynamo	29	13	7	9	2	46
6	Los Angeles FC	30	12	9	9	15	45
7	Seattle Sounders	29	11	8	10	2	41
8	Los Angeles Galaxy	30	10	9	11	-9	39
9	Colorado Rapids	29	11	5	13	0	38
10	Portland Timbers	29	9	6	14	-5	33
11	Real Salt Lake	29	9	6	14	-5	33
12	San Diego	29	8	9	12	-3	33
13	Minnesota United FC	29	7	10	12	-9	31
14	Austin	29	7	10	12	-17	31
15	Sporting Kansas City	29	6	4	19	-37	22
1	Nashville SC	29	20	6	3	41	66
2	Inter Miami	29	14	10	5	20	52
3	New England Revolution	29	15	4	10	7	49
4	Chicago Fire	29	14	6	9	9	48
5	Charlotte	29	13	7	9	8	46
6	Philadelphia Union	29	13	6	10	13	45
7	Orlando City SC	29	11	5	13	-15	38
8	New York Red Bulls	29	10	6	13	-15	36
9	FC Cincinnati	28	9	9	10	-8	36
10	New York City FC	29	8	9	12	2	33
11	Toronto FC	29	7	12	10	-11	33
12	DC United	28	7	12	9	-11	33
13	Columbus Crew	29	9	5	15	-3	32
14	Atlanta United FC	29	8	6	15	-12	30
15	CF Montreal	29	6	6	17	-24	24

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.