· Analysis updated 14:48 UTC
New Zealand W vs Morocco W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.86 expected goals for New Zealand W and 1.14 for Morocco W, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives New Zealand W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
New Zealand W win
54.1% probability
Expected goals
1.86 – 1.14
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
New Zealand W home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates New Zealand W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 23% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.86 goals for New Zealand W and 1.14 for Morocco W, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 58% and both teams to score at 58%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.6%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–09.3%
- 2–08.6%
- 3–16.1%
Recent form
New Zealand W
- 2026-06-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Morocco W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-06-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Haiti W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-15T07:10:00.000Z · H vs Papua New Guinea W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-04-11T04:10:00.000Z · H vs Fiji W · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-03-05T02:00:00.000Z · A vs American Samoa W · 3-0 (W)
Morocco W
- 2026-08-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Algeria W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-12T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Cameroon W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-08T20:00:00.000Z · H vs South Africa W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-03T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Senegal W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-30T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Algeria W · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is New Zealand W win, at 54.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.